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14 Sep 2025
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Market performance and driving factors - September 14, 1025
On September 12 (Friday), Indian stock market closed strongly higher under the push of global generally favorable factors, Sensex index rose 356 points (+0.44%) to 81,904.70 points, Nifty 50 index rose 109 points (+0.43%) to 25,114 points, breaking through the key psychological level of 25,100 points, making a new high since July 23, and achieving the eighth consecutive trading day of rise. This rise was mainly supported by expectation of Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week, US dollar index weakened, and market sentiment kept improving
In addition, positive signals appeared in India US trade agreement negotiations, and European Union may refuse the proposal of imposing oil tariffs on India, which further boosted investor confidence. On domestic side, healthy macroeconomic environment, tax reform and expectation of corporate profit recovery in the second half of year became important support for bulls.
Sector and stock performance highlights
From sector view, except FMCG (-0.71%), media (-0.39%) and PSU banks (-0.27%), all major industry indices closed higher. Among them, metal sector rose 0.93%, financial services rose 0.70%, banks rose 0.26%, and automobile and technology stocks also showed strong performance. In Nifty constituents, BEL recorded the biggest gain (+3.71%), Bajaj Finance (+3.34%) and Bajaj Finserv (+2.23%) followed closely, showing clear fund inflow into financial heavyweight stocks. In contrast, consumer stocks like Eternal (-1.90%) and Hindustan Unilever (-1.53%) became top losers, showing defensive sectors under short term pressure.
Market liquidity and breadth performance
The total market capitalization of BSE listed companies increased by nearly 2 trillion rupees in a single day, showing overall positive fund sentiment. Across the market, 2,059 stocks advanced, 2,085 declined, and 145 remained unchanged, with the advance-decline ratio almost balanced, but large cap stocks performed stronger. 135 stocks hit intraday 52 week highs, including Bajaj Finance, Aditya Birla Capital and Waaree Energies, while about 53 stocks touched 52-week lows, showing the market is gradually completing the “strong gets stronger” structural differentiation.
Technical view and trend outlook
On technical side, Nifty broke through the important resistance level of 25,100 and formed a small bullish candle, keeping short term momentum strong. Daily chart shows Nifty has successfully stood above all key moving averages, MACD formed a buy crossover above zero line, RSI moved up to around 60, showing momentum strengthening. It is expected that in short term, index may challenge target zone of 25,250–25,500, but some consolidation may appear before that. Bank Nifty rose for the eighth consecutive day, closing at 54,809 points, with a weekly gain of 1.28%, and weekly chart closed positive, showing financial sector continues to lead fund flows.
Macroeconomic and policy support
India’s retail inflation in August slightly rebounded to 2.07%, but still stayed below 3% for the fourth consecutive month, and food inflation remained in negative territory. I believe this level is still “benign inflation” and will not affect Reserve Bank of India to continue keeping accommodative policy in October, with market widely expecting another 25 basis point rate cut within this year. Meanwhile, Goods and Services Tax (GST) reform is continuously landing, and reduction of tax rates on durable consumer goods and automobiles will directly stimulate demand recovery, providing momentum for profit rebound in coming quarters. It is expected that festival consumption cycle together with rate cut effect will inject strong momentum into the economy in fourth quarter.
Global macro and risk warnings
Internationally, IEA warned that global oil market has about 3 million barrels per day of “unsustainable” oversupply, which will test the inventory digestion ability of China and other consuming countries. If oil prices continue under pressure, it will ease global inflation and help Federal Reserve start rate cut cycle faster, which is especially favorable for emerging markets. But still need to pay attention to progress of US India trade negotiations, as well as volatility that may come from global geopolitical risks. Overall, Indian market currently has solid fundamental support, investors can stay medium term optimistic, and accumulate positions on dips in policy supported sectors such as finance, automobiles, durable consumer goods and defense. In short term, market performance near 25,500 pressure zone should be watched, to guard against technical pullback after a rally.
In addition, positive signals appeared in India US trade agreement negotiations, and European Union may refuse the proposal of imposing oil tariffs on India, which further boosted investor confidence. On domestic side, healthy macroeconomic environment, tax reform and expectation of corporate profit recovery in the second half of year became important support for bulls.
Sector and stock performance highlights
From sector view, except FMCG (-0.71%), media (-0.39%) and PSU banks (-0.27%), all major industry indices closed higher. Among them, metal sector rose 0.93%, financial services rose 0.70%, banks rose 0.26%, and automobile and technology stocks also showed strong performance. In Nifty constituents, BEL recorded the biggest gain (+3.71%), Bajaj Finance (+3.34%) and Bajaj Finserv (+2.23%) followed closely, showing clear fund inflow into financial heavyweight stocks. In contrast, consumer stocks like Eternal (-1.90%) and Hindustan Unilever (-1.53%) became top losers, showing defensive sectors under short term pressure.
Market liquidity and breadth performance
The total market capitalization of BSE listed companies increased by nearly 2 trillion rupees in a single day, showing overall positive fund sentiment. Across the market, 2,059 stocks advanced, 2,085 declined, and 145 remained unchanged, with the advance-decline ratio almost balanced, but large cap stocks performed stronger. 135 stocks hit intraday 52 week highs, including Bajaj Finance, Aditya Birla Capital and Waaree Energies, while about 53 stocks touched 52-week lows, showing the market is gradually completing the “strong gets stronger” structural differentiation.
Technical view and trend outlook
On technical side, Nifty broke through the important resistance level of 25,100 and formed a small bullish candle, keeping short term momentum strong. Daily chart shows Nifty has successfully stood above all key moving averages, MACD formed a buy crossover above zero line, RSI moved up to around 60, showing momentum strengthening. It is expected that in short term, index may challenge target zone of 25,250–25,500, but some consolidation may appear before that. Bank Nifty rose for the eighth consecutive day, closing at 54,809 points, with a weekly gain of 1.28%, and weekly chart closed positive, showing financial sector continues to lead fund flows.
Macroeconomic and policy support
India’s retail inflation in August slightly rebounded to 2.07%, but still stayed below 3% for the fourth consecutive month, and food inflation remained in negative territory. I believe this level is still “benign inflation” and will not affect Reserve Bank of India to continue keeping accommodative policy in October, with market widely expecting another 25 basis point rate cut within this year. Meanwhile, Goods and Services Tax (GST) reform is continuously landing, and reduction of tax rates on durable consumer goods and automobiles will directly stimulate demand recovery, providing momentum for profit rebound in coming quarters. It is expected that festival consumption cycle together with rate cut effect will inject strong momentum into the economy in fourth quarter.
Global macro and risk warnings
Internationally, IEA warned that global oil market has about 3 million barrels per day of “unsustainable” oversupply, which will test the inventory digestion ability of China and other consuming countries. If oil prices continue under pressure, it will ease global inflation and help Federal Reserve start rate cut cycle faster, which is especially favorable for emerging markets. But still need to pay attention to progress of US India trade negotiations, as well as volatility that may come from global geopolitical risks. Overall, Indian market currently has solid fundamental support, investors can stay medium term optimistic, and accumulate positions on dips in policy supported sectors such as finance, automobiles, durable consumer goods and defense. In short term, market performance near 25,500 pressure zone should be watched, to guard against technical pullback after a rally.